Understanding What Influences Forex Prices

This article will explain some of the differences between Technical Analysis and Fundamentals and explain a bit about each type of trading. Excerpts are taken from the best-selling book 'Market Wizards' where Jack Schwager interviews Ed Seykota and Bruce Kovner.

Ed is a trend trader (uses technical analysis) and also relies on hunches from 20 years of experience. He definitely emphasizes his reliance on technical analysis. While reading this, I liken, the 'hunches' to knowing the effect fundamentals can have on a market although I could be mistaken, they could be purely from reading lots of charts so well. Here are is exact words "Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them 'funny-mentals.' However, if you catch on early, before others believe, then you might have valuable 'surprise-a-mentals.'"

Ed says his priorities when trading are the long term trend, the current charts and picking a good spot to buy or sell, in that order.

Bruce says technical is awesome and very useful but by no means disregards fundamentals.

It's important to note that technical analysis is a critical method of understanding the history of market movements and hence useful to identify trends. It doesn't actually tell us where the currency is going but analyses historical data. We then need to use our own intelligence to see what the activity of trading says about future trades.

Technical Analysis can be compared to taking a patient's temperature. To ignore it is ignorance and it can tell you whether a market is active, or cold and dormant.

It also picks up unusual behaviour. Anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. He also says "Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes."

It's the fundamentals that will help to indicate whether a trading value will increase or decrease.

Everything that makes a country tick, in Forex terms. Consumer spending, government spending, employment cost index, government policy, political concerns and even an individual event can influence the market heavily.

In summary, the fundamentals will indicate the direction of a price but not exact prices. The chart analysis or technical analysis is better for that, so together you can really increase your chances of coming away with some pips.

The reason technical analysis is so emphasized is that many traders use charts to trade and at any given time, will be drawing the same lines of resistance and same lines of support. So if you can read the charts well, you have an awesome chance of predicting market movements. The best way to learn about the effect of fundamentals is to learn one piece of economic data at a time. This will help you make better-educated trades.

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Energy Prices, Inflation and Forex

Oil futures surged to a record intraday high of $70.85 on August 30th, the day after Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Gulf Coast. While prices have moderated in subsequent weeks, it's worth examining how higher commodity prices and the specter of inflation impacts the foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly the U.S. dollar.

Traditional supply and demand factors certainly have contributed to the longer term trend in energy prices. The demand side of the equation has been getting plenty of press this year, with focus on the rapidly growing thirst for oil in both China and India. However, the recent spike in oil can primarily be attributed to hurricane related speculation in the futures market and the limited and centralized (on the Gulf Coast) refining capacity of the U.S.

Economic data released in recent weeks has begun to reflect the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which ravaged the U.S. Gulf Coast in August and September. These data reinforce what the Fed has been implying all along; that the economy is growing at a brisk pace and that inflation, not recession, should be the concern.

September jobs data showed the first net job losses since May of 2003, but the decline of 35,000 jobs was much smaller than the decline that was anticipated. September CPI showed the largest monthly gain in 25 years. However, when the volatile food and energy components are removed, inflation was a rather mild 0.1%. That was quite a bit less than the market was anticipating and suggests that the higher energy prices are not being passed through to the core number yet.

Similarly, the September PPI headline number exceeded expectation and was the largest monthly gain in 15 years. However, again we remove food and energy and see that wholesale prices were up a relatively restrained 0.3%. This core number did beat expectations though, so one might deduce that higher energy prices are starting to impact prices at the wholesale level and it's just a matter of time before these higher prices are passed along to consumers. Weaker than expected retail sales and a new 13 year low in Consumer Sentiment suggests that higher energy prices are indeed weighing on the American consumer's mind. How that will play out, particularly in the retail sector going into the holiday season is now a major focus on Wall Street.

With the word 'inflation' seemingly on everyone's lips these days, we expect the Fed to continue on its tightening schedule. The Fed raised the target for overnight borrowing in September by 25bp to 3.75%, the 11th such hike since June of 2004. Another rate hike is expected in October and at least one additional 25bp bump is all but assured in November or December.

Rising U.S. interest rates and an expanding U.S. economy have been the driving forces behind overseas flows into U.S treasuries and the stock market respectively. These flows translate into demand for the U.S. dollar, which has kept the greenback generally well bid in September and October. While we would contend that the equities market is vulnerable at this stage, the interest rate differential picture should continue to favor the dollar through year end.

High energy prices and inflation fears are not exclusive to the U.S. Central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations are meeting in Beijing this month. A statement released on October 16th said, high oil prices "could increase inflationary pressures, slow down growth and cause instability in the global economy.'' This should benefit the dollar as well because in times of global economic uncertainty, the dollar is still considered a "safe haven" currency. While we may see other countries begin to tighten their monetary policies, U.S. interest rates will remain significantly higher.

The definitive move above USD-JPY 115.00 bodes well for additional dollar gains against the yen into the 118/120 zone. On the other hand, the July lows in EURUSD at 1.1868 must be convincingly negated to trigger further dollar gains against the European currency. Such a move would shift focus to the 2004 lows at 1.1759/78 initially, but potential would be for a drop below 1.1500.

In times of inflationary pressures, the U.S. dollar tends to lose ground against the commodity currencies. Commodity currencies are the currencies of countries that derive the bulk of their export revenues from the sale of commodities. Prime examples of liquid commodity currencies are the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

The dollar hit a new 17 year low late in September against the Canadian dollar on the back of sharply higher oil and metals prices. While the dollar recovered from those lows, gains are considered corrective in nature and we look for the longer-term downtrend in USD-CAD to continue. Similarly, AUS-USD and NZD-USD are consolidating below important resistances with scope seen for additional short to medium term gains.

At some point, domestic inflation and the rise in the U.S. dollar will return focus to the U.S. trade deficit and balance of payments. As U.S. goods and services become more expensive, both domestic and overseas consumers will look elsewhere. That's the point where the U.S. stock market truly becomes vulnerable. Downside risk in the stock market will result in a negative impact on flows into the U.S. and consequently the long-term downtrend in the dollar would likely start to re-exert itself.

Conventional wisdom in the financial services industry suggests that placing 5-10% of one's portfolio in alternative investments, such as those offered by CFS Capital, is desirable to achieve the diversification necessary to protect against adverse moves in the more traditional asset classes.

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How Are Interest Rates Set?

How Are Interest Rates Set

How are interest rates set -- a common question received by those who broker loans. The first thing most clients or prospective clients will ask is "how are rates doing?" Or, "what rate can I get?" It's understandable as the interest rate determines in large part as to what your monthly payment will be. Fundamentally, the interest rate is what you pay the lender in exchange for their lending you the money for your home loan.

How Are Rates Set?

So, how are rates set? Generally speaking, the longer the loan the more the risk to the lender and consequently the higher the rate. Of course, it's not as simple as that for there are a number of factors that determine how rates are set. Here's the nitty-gritty as to how your California home loan interest rate is set. There are three fundamental forces that determine interest rates in the United States. They are:
The Federal Reserve
The Bond Market
Multiple Forces in The Economy
The Federal Reserve
The "Fed" as it is commonly called determines US monetary policy for the entire country. There was no central federal banking system in the US from 1783 to 1913 but that all changed with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Ostensibly, it is the central bank of the US. Don't let the term "Federal Reserve" throw you -- it is NOT a federal US government institution or department.

It is a privately-held organization. There are 12 regional Federal Reserve System banks throughout the US. In addition, the Federal Reserve seeks to constantly adapt its various monetary policies in a concerted effort to combat inflationary and deflationary pressures brought about due to changes in the domestic or global economy. The Federal Reserve Board members meet eight times a year and generally only changes rates during a meeting. The 12-member Federal Reserve Board can control interest rates by changing the rates it charges banks to borrow money.

Here's how it can influence rates. The Federal Reserve loans banks funds from their district Federal Reserve bank who pledge their commercial paper as collateral. The Fed essentially charges the borrowing bank interest on the loan. This is called the discount rate. Banks or lenders then lend the consumer or borrower money charging their primary interest rate. The implications are self-evident. The higher the discount rate the Fed charges the bank, the higher the primary interest rate will be to the borrower as the bank wants to meet the minimum requirements as well as make a profit.

Many people think that when they hear the Federal Reserve Chairman make a monetary policy change with the Prime rate, it automatically affects interest rates. Not so. The Prime rate increase or decrease may affect a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC), but it wouldn't affect interest rates. Interest rates also fluctuate with the various loan programs available to the borrower. (For more information on Loan Programs within this site, please click here.)

The Bond Market

The bond market fluctuates on a daily basis and is a major determinant in the setting of interest rates. In fact, one can actually guess with an astonishing degree of accuracy as to any movement within a business day if there will be a rate adjustment, whether up or down, based on what the bond market is doing, specifically the 10 year bond. For clarity's sake, there a couple of different bonds that affect interest rates. They are:
The 2 Year Bond
The 5 Year Bond
The 10 Year Bond
The 30 Year Bond
The primary bonds that affect interest rates are the 10 year and the 5 year bond. To see actual, real time fluctuations in the bond market, go here at http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/ to see current prices for bonds. This is the one I view daily. The bond market is highly volatile. How do you read the graphs so as to know if interest rates will have a spike downward or upward?

While looking at the 10 year price graph (the farthest one on the right), if the 10 year price has a massive swing upward from say 99 28/32 to 103 28/32, rates most likely will have a decrease from current levels. On a daily basis, California loan agents receive rate sheets from lenders (we work with over 400 lenders so they are plentiful).

If the bond market fluctuation merits an increase or decrease in the loan broker's yield spread premium (their rebate), it will in turn affect the interest rate that is quoted to a client, which in this example would be a lower rate. If the bond price doesn't have much of a fluctuation during a normal business day, the rate will not move. Every day, in the morning, rates are received in the office. If a price adjustment is required, the primary lenders will immediately issue an adjustment rate sheet to their broker partners.

As I've said, interest rates are set based on the yield in the bond market at any given time. Let's show an example. If, for example, a $100,000.00 bond falls in value to $95,000.00, the corresponding yield (return) is significantly higher. Because the yield is higher, the prevailing interest rate that is set for the mortgage must offset the higher yield and provide a return on the mortgage for the lending institution. With all things being equal, the rates on fixed rate mortgages would tend to rise.

Multiple Forces in The Economy

There are many factors influencing interest rates for your California home loan in the US economy. Higher interest rates can cause fluctuations in the stock market which in turn affects the bond market. In fact, the bond market and the stock market are opposite sides of the same coin. One can't move without the other. If the US Dollar rallies, bonds dip; when oil prices dip, bonds can as well. Generally speaking, when the bond market is up, the stock market is down. In addition, if economic news is worse or better than expected, it will cause a fluctuation in the US dollar currency pairs in the spot Foreign Exchange market (the FOREX), which can affect the bond market and in turn rates.

A quick example. A couple of weeks ago from this writing, the US New Jobs report was projected at 350,000 -- it only came in at 10% of that or 35,000. Once the report was announced, literally IMMEDIATELY the GBP/USD currency pair (Great British Pound and US Dollar) spiked upward. The GBP dramatically increased in strength with the US Dollar becoming weaker. One FOREX trader I know literally made $3,500 in five minutes as he projected the claims to be much less than expected.

Also, interest rates dropped that day due to the lackluster jobs report. Coming into the office that day, a wise loan agent would have locked some loans or at the least knew interest rates would had gone down that day. Truly, the US economy is a highly interdependent organism that is very fluid and dynamic -- it is never static or motionless. Some of the key economic indicators that affect the economy, and in turn interest rates, are:
Durable Goods Orders
New Home Sales
US Trade Balance
Jobless Rate
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Fed Chairman Greenspan Speech Before Congress

The key economic indicators that can affect the bond market with corresponding fluctuations are:
Consumer Confidence
Retail Sales
Manufacturing Activity
Industrial Production
Jobs Growth
Inflation

There you have it. There are many forces at work in determining what your rate is on any given day. So the next time you ask a loan agent, "what are rates like today?" You'll see there's a lot behind it.

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The Costs Of Trading

You may have relatives or friends who trade the markets. They could be trading shares, futures, options or forex. You may have heard of their exciting trading stories and perhaps this aroused your curiosity and you wondered whether you should trade too. One of the first questions you ask before you trade would be: what are the costs of trading.

The costs of trading depend on several factors, including the instrument and market you are trading. Most of the costs you pay are to your brokerage firm. They need to make a living in exchange for the services they provide.

Generally, you would expect to incur the following costs:

Commissions

Slippage

Spread

Platform Fees

Expenses

Commissions

These costs are charged by brokers. The commission you pay is usually calculated as a percentage of the size of your trade. For example, if you are buying or selling $10,000 worth of shares, your broker may charge you 1% of that. They may also charge in tiers: for example, if you are buying or selling shares with a total market value of less than $10,000 then your broker may charge you $30. If it is under $20,000, they may charge you $50. Therefore, if you bought $5,000 worth of shares, you would still pay $30 commission. And if you bought $12,000 worth of shares you would still pay $50 commission.

Slippage

The price of a commodity is always moving as long as the market is open. Therefore, if the price of a share is quoted at $10 now, it does not mean that when you decide to buy, you will buy those shares at $10 each. When you put in your order and it gets filled, the market price may have already changed. If your order to buy the shares was filled at a price of $10.25, and you bought 100 shares, then your total slippage cost is: $25 (that is 100 shares * $0.25). If you had the same slippage when you sell, then the entire slippage costs for you getting in and out of the market would be $50 (that is $25 * 2 trades).

Spread

The spread is the difference between the bid to buy and offer to sell for the commodity. If the most eager buyer is willing to buy US Dollars for 0.7500 Australian Dollars each, but the most eager seller is only willing to sell them for 0.7510 Australian Dollars each, then there is a spread of 10 pips. These 10 pips are referred to as the spread. If you bought 100,000 USDs, the spread would cost you 100 Australian Dollars. (Pips are discussed further in the book: The Part-Time Currency Trader .)

Platform Fees

Some brokers charge you monthly for using their trading platforms.

Expenses

These costs include those associated to your trading education like buying books, trading software, data subscription and so forth.

Some people may 'brush' these costs aside as negligible costs of having fun, much like the coins they put in poker machines. However, if you want to look at trading as a business, you have to minimize them and make sure you are getting the most for every dollar you spend to ensure your long-term survival.

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FOREX: Exiting positions at a right time

The presented article covers one of the most important (in author's opinion) aspects of trading in general and Forex trading in particular — managing of orders and positions. This includes choosing entry points, making decisions about exit points, stop-loss and take-profit of the trader. I hope this article will help new traders, who just began to work with Forex, and also to experienced traders who trade regularly and regularly make or loose their money to the market.

When I started to trade Forex and made my first big losses and profits I began to notice when very important thing about the whole trading process. While the right time to enter a position was rarely a problem for myself (nearly 80% of all my open positions had gone into the "green" profit zone), the problem was hidden in the determining the right exit point for that position. Not only was it important to cut my risk on the potential losses with stop-loss orders, but to limit my greediness and take profit when I can take it and make it as high as I can. There are many known guidelines and ways to enter a right position at a right time — like major economic news releases, global world events, technical indicators combinations, etc. But while the entering into a position is optional and trade can decide to miss as many good/bad entry point moments as they wish, this is untrue if we talk about exiting a position. Margin trading makes it impossible to wait too long with an open position. More than that, every open position in a certain way limits trader's ability to trade.

Choosing the good exit points for positions could be an easy task if only the Forex market wasn't so chaotic and volatile. In my opinion (backed by my trading experience) exit orders for every position should be toggled constantly with time and as the new market data (technical and fundamental) appear.

Let's say, you took a short position on EUR/USD at 1.2563, at the time you are taking this position the support/resistance level is 1.2500/1.2620. You set your stop-loss order to 1.2625 and your take-profit order to 1.2505. So now, this position can be considered as an intraday or 2-3 days term position. This means that you must close it before it's "term" is over, or it will become a very unpredictable position (because market will differ greatly from what it was at the time you have entered this position). After the position is taken and initial exit orders are set, you need to follow the market events and technical indicators to adjust your exit orders. The most important rule is to tighten the loss/profit limit as time goes by. Usually if I take a middle term position (2-4 days) I try to lower the stop and target order by 10-25 pips every day. I also monitor global events, trying to lower my stop-losses when very important news can hurt my position. If the profit is already quite high, I try to move my stop-loss the entry point, making a sure-win position. The main idea here is to find an equilibrium point between greed and caution. But as your position gets older the profit should be more limited and losses cut. Also, trader should always remember that if the market began to act unexpectedly, they need to be even more cautious with exit order, even if the position is still showing profits.

Every trader has their own trading strategy and habits. I hope this article will make its readers think about such an important aspect of trading as the exit orders and this will only improve their trading results.

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Forex: No psychological limitations

Back when I first started learning about investing, I decided to start from the beginning and read basic books on personal finance as well as "guides" for understanding all of the investment world in a nut shell. Most of these authors were very knowledgeable and informative, but their investment advice was far too conservative for my taste. They would literally write chapter after chapter talking about the differences between conservative investing, which according to them generally yields somewhere around 5% PA, as opposed to "risky" investing which usually meant a diversified stock/mutual fund portfolio yielding (in my mind) only slightly higher averages. What kind of returns can you expect in the stock market? Well they say the market has gone up an average of 10% a year since Adam and Eve. Popular indexes like the DOW and the now more popular S&P500 have always, like real estate, "gone up over time."

Now, these market averages are almost worshiped like golden calves. Repeatedly drilled into my brain was the concept that there were hundreds (if not thousands) of fund managers and other "professionals" out there with Harvard degrees, decades of experience, millions of dollars under management, and they were all spending 15 hours a day consuming every single bit of market information in the hopes of beating these golden calves by a few points.

What chance did I have? If Dr. Fund Guru Jr. who eats, sleeps, breathes the markets and has more credentials than I have individual hairs on my body can't consistently make 20% a year...well...forget it kid...your chances are slim to none. I guess I'll buy some shares of XYZ fund and accept the scraps off the table from the stock gurus.

NOT!

The foreign exchange market offers many benefits that the stock market does not have. Most of these have been beaten to death on various forums, blogs, articles, e-books, etc. However, it's always good to reiterate the positive (my own personal reason is last): — Forex offers unprecedented liquidity. With over two trillion dollars transacted per day on the market, it makes filling any buy/sell order virtually instant. That equates to less slippage and more profitability. "Paper trading" stocks vs actually trading stocks is very different, because orders may not be filled in a timely manner. The difference between trading a forex demo account and an actual account is virtually nill. — Forex is available 24 hours a day 5.5 days a week, as opposed to the daylight trading hours of the stock exchanges. — Forex is uncontrollable by large entities. Large net worth individuals, banks and fund managers who throw their weight around in the stock market can often have huge effects on price action. Because of the immense volume of foreign currency traded per day, the market is unmoved by "heavy hitters." Not even central banks can control the Forex market. — Forex offers up to 200:1 leverage as opposed to 2:1 stock leverage. — Forex has no restrictions for selling short, as opposed to the stock market's "uptick" rule — Forex can actually be traded INSIDE of an IRA or Roth IRA account. — Forex gains are taxed at the preferred 60/40 rate, no matter what trading style you use (intra-day, swing, position) as opposed to the tax penalties for holding stocks for short periods of time.

The list does go on, but for me the biggest advantage is a psychological one. I know it probably sounds silly, but fear and intimidation can sometimes subconsciously defeat us before we even begin. I don't like the idea of having to live up to, and in a way, compete with "professional managers" who have more knowledge of the fundamentals of the markets than I ever will. It's almost as if Forex, in some way, levels the playing field. I don't have to psychologically compete against anyone's idea of what kind of returns are "acceptable and realistic" and what kind of returns are "pure fantasy." I only have to trade until I can find an acceptable reward to risk ratio, and consistent profitability thereof. The only one I compete against is myself.

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The Benefits of Trading The Forex Market

Historically, the FX market was available most to major banks, multinational corporations and other participants who traded in large transaction sizes and volumes. Small-scale traders including individuals like you and I, had little access to this market for such a long time. Now with the advent of the Internet and technology, FX trading is becoming an increasingly popular investment alternative for the general public.

The benefits of trading the currency market:

It is open 24-hours and it closes only on the weekends;

It is very liquid and efficient;

It is very volatile;

It has very low transaction costs;

You can use a high level of leverage (borrowed money) with ease; and

You can profit from a bull or a bear market.

Continuous, 24-Hour Trading

The currency exchange is a 24-hour market. You may decide to trade after you come home from work. Regardless of what time-frame you want to trade at whatever time of the day, there would be enough buyers and sellers to take the other side of your trade. This feature of the market gives you enough flexibility to manage your trading around your daily routine.

Liquidity And Efficiency

When there are a lot of buyers and a lot of sellers, you can expect to buy or sell at a price that is very close to the last market price. The currency market is the most liquid market in the world. Trading volume in the currency markets can be between 50 and 100 times larger than the New York Stock Exchange (Source: Oanda.)

When you are trading stocks, you may have experienced events where one piece of news accelerates or decelerates the price of the underlying stock you may have bought into. Perhaps a director has been kicked out by the shareholders of a company or the company has just released a new product and big investors are buying the shares of a particular company. Share prices can be drastically affected by the actions or inactions of one or a few individuals. So if you are relying on television reports and newspapers to get your news, most of the opportunities or warnings will have come too late for you to take advantage by the time you get them.

The value of currencies on the other hand is affected by so many factors and so many participants that the likelihood of any one individual or group of individuals drastically affecting the value of a currency is minute. Because of its sheer size, the currency market is hard to manipulate. The ability for people to engage in 'insider trading' is virtually eliminated. As an average trader, you are less disadvantaged. You are likely to be playing on relatively equal ground along with all the other traders and investors whom you are competing against.

Note about price gaps:

For those people who have already traded other markets, you probably know about price 'gaps'. 'Gaps' occur when prices 'jump' from one price level to another without having taken any incremental steps to get there. For example, you may be trading a share that closes at $10 at the end of today but due to some event that happens overnight; it opens tomorrow at $5 and continues to go downwards for the rest of the day.

Gaps bring about another degree of uncertainty that may meddle with a trader's strategy. Probably one of the most worrying aspects of this is when a trader uses stop-losses. In this case, if a trader puts a stop-loss at $7 because he no longer wants to be in a trade if the share price hits $7, his trade will remain open overnight and the trader wakes up tomorrow with a loss bigger than he may have been prepared for.

After looking at a couple of forex charts, you will realize that there are little price 'gaps' or none at all, especially on the longer-term charts like the 3-hour, 4-hour or the daily charts.

Volatility

Trading opportunities exist when prices fluctuate. If you buy a share for $2 and it stays there, there is no opportunity to make a profit. The magnitude of level of this fluctuation and its frequency is referred to as volatility. As a trader, it is volatility that you profit from. Large volume transactions and high liquidity combined with fewer trading instruments generate greater intra-day volatility in the currency market that can be exploited by day-traders. The high volatility of the currency market indicates that a trader can potentially earn 5 times more money from currency trading than trading the most liquid shares.

Volatility is a measure of maximum return that a trader can generate with perfect foresight. Volatility for the most liquid stocks are between 60 to 100. Volatility for currency trading is 500. (Source: Oanda.)

In this respect, currencies make a better trading vehicle for day-traders than the equity markets.

Low Transaction Costs

A currency transaction typically incurs no commission or transaction fees. For a forex trader, the spread is the only cost he or she needs to cover in taking on a position. In addition, because of the currency market's efficiency, there is little or no 'slippage' costs.

'Slippage' is the cost involved when traders enter the market at a price worse than the level they wanted to get into. For example, a trader wants to buy a share at $2.00 but by the time, the order gets executed, his gets to buy the shares at $2.50. That fifty cents difference is his slippage cost. Slippage cost affects large-volume traders a lot. When they buy large quantities of a commodity, it oversupplies the market with buy orders. This applies a pressure for the price to go up. By the time they get to buy all the quantities they wanted, the average price they got their commodities would be higher than the price they intended to get them for. Conversely, when they sell large quantities of a commodity, they oversupply the market with sell orders. This applies a pressure for the price to go down. By the time they finish selling all their commodities, their average selling price is less than what they initially intended to sell them for.

Due to lower transaction costs, minimum slippage and strong intra-day volatility, individuals can trade frequently at small costs. As an approximate, you may only expect to have a spread of 0.03% of your position size. To give you an example, you can buy and sell 10,000 US Dollars and this will only incur a 3-point spread, equivalent to $3.

Leverage

There are not a lot of banks or people who would lend you money so that you can use it to trade shares. And if there are, it would be very hard for you to convince them to invest in you and in your idea that a certain share is going to go up or down. Therefore, most of the time, if you have a $10,000 account, you can only really afford to buy $10,000 worth of stocks.

In currency trading however, because you use 'borrowed money', you can trade $10,000 of a currency and you only need anywhere between fifty (For a margin lending ratio of 200:1) to two hundred dollars ( For a margin lending ratio of 50:1) in your trading account. This makes it possible for an average trader with a small trading account, under $10,000 to be able to profit sufficiently from the movements of the currency exchange rates. This concept is explained further in The Part-Time Currency Trader.

Profit From A Bull And Bear Market

When you are trading shares, you can only profit when the price of a stock goes up. When you suspect that it is about to go down or that it is just going to be moving sideways, then the only thing you can do is sell your shares and stand aside. One of the frustrations of trading shares is that an individual cannot profit when prices are going down. In the currency market, it is easy for you to trade a currency downward so that you can profit when you think it is going to lose value. This is easy to do because currency trading simply involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias that makes it difficult to trade 'downwards'. This is why the currency market has been occasionally referred to as the eternal bull market.

This is an excerpt, modified from the book: The Part-Time Currency Trader.

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Getting a Forex Trading Education

Many Americans are interested in getting involved in forex trading. Before doing this, you should get a forex trading education. You should never get into forex trading without forex trading education. With the proper forex trading education, you can be on your way to making a tidy profit.

First you need to understand what forex trading is. Forex is short for foreign exchange. Forex trading is the simultaneous exchange of one countries currency for another countries currency. By doing so at the right times, you can gain a profit. A forex trading education can teach you how to do this.

The first part of a forex trading education is to learn the market background. The foreign exchange market is always changing. With forex trading education, you will learn how to monitor these changes to be beneficial for you.

The next part of your forex trading education is to learn about risk control and risk management. You learn to control yourself and not over invest at the thrill of the chance of making money. You will also learn how to cut your losses (how to exit losing trades before your losses exceed your limits). You will always lose money when you first begin forex trading. This part of your forex trading education is absolutely crucial to whether you will make it big or end up in a hole.

Another important part of your forex trading education is to learn how to open and manage your forex trading account. Your forex trading education should first have you practice with a demo account. This way you learn the ropes by practicing forex trades with play money. There is no risk involved, but it is just as realistic as the real thing. Your forex trading education should also let you know when you are ready for the real thing. You should then, and only then, open up a live forex trading account.

There are many ways to get a forex trading education. The best place to get a forex trading education is online. There are many free websites available that let you open free demo accounts to practice your forex trading. There are also free seminars that are avaiable at random times. The best thing to do is to get some advice from someone who is a current forex trader. They can give you some down to earth insight on the subject of forex trading.

Now that you know a little bit about forex trading it is time for you to go out and get a good forex trading education. Don't rush into it and take your time. There is a lot of money involved with forex trading. It is best not to get ahead of yourself.

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Option Arbitrage in the Forex Market

What is arbitrage? Arbitrage is the simultaneous buying and selling of identical financial instruments taking advantage of price discrepancies between different brokers, exchanges, clearing firms, etc. and thus looking in a profit. On paper, arbitrage is a risk-less trading strategy. In the real world however, risks abound.

So why trade arbitrage? Well, if the risks can be managed, arbitrage can be extremely profitable if you can find the opportunities and take advantage of the opportunities before they disappear. After all, the arbitrage opportunity is present because one side is slow to react to market news, momentum, etc. When it corrects the opportunity is gone.

Why arbitrage forex options? Well, because the opportunity exists if you look far it. The forex market is a cash inter-bank / inter-dealer market. In simplest terms, this means the foreign currencies traded in the forex market are traded directly between banks, foreign currency dealers and forex investors wishing either to diversify, speculate or to hedge foreign currency risk. The forex market is not a "market" in the traditional sense due to the fact that there is no centralized location for forex trading activity and, therefore, trades placed in the forex market are considered over-the-counter (OTC). Forex trading between parties occurs through computer terminals, exchanges and over telephones at thousands of locations worldwide. Therefore the forex market is not as efficient as the NYSE for example. Price discrepancies exist between trading platforms, clearing firms, banks, etc if only for a small period of time. Options pricing is also affected for the same reasons but since there are other components involved in pricing an option than just the price of underlying currency, they tend to exist for longer periods of time.

One of the most common causes of option pricing differences is the calculation of volatility. Volatility is generally the standard deviation measured over a period of time. Sounds simple enough right? Well, if compare the volatility measure across different forex option providers, you'll likely find differences as large as 2%. When you find this you have also probably found an arbitrage opportunity.

Now that you've found an arbitrage opportunity, how do you trade it? Well, that's a bit trickier and this article cannot possibly cover all the risks associated with pulling off the trade but I will list some issues you should consider.

First of all, are the options really the same? Are the contract sizes, expiration dates and times the same? American or European style?

You also need to consider execution risk. Will there be slippage. Will there be a time delay in getting filled. Is the market moving too fast?

Exit strategy, how are you going to exit the trade and still capture the profit? What happens if the options expire in-the money? Out-of-the-money? What if you get assigned a position on one option but not the other?

These are just a few of the issues one must consider when trying to profit from option arbitrage. The key to option arbitrage is not unlike any other trade -- planning and risk management. Plan the trade, manage the risks, and execute the plan and you will be successful.

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Trying Forex Trading with the Best Strategy and Approach

With the day things are today, more people are getting interested in investing their money to make them grow faster. The problem is, not too many people are willing to take the risk of investing it because of the risks, so some of them just let their money rut in banks. Not that there's anything wrong with banks, it's just that they have low rates and the money takes a long time to grow. If you want real money, you have to have the guts to risk it. Making money needs money; risks are always involved if you want to have money fast and big.

One of the largest arenas wherein you can invest your savings is the Forex. Forex trading has been around for decades already and is regarded as the largest financial forum in the whole world with an estimated 3.1 trillion dollars of volume everyday. The Forex (Foreign Exchange) trading is open 24 hours and never sleeps. Transactions are done all over the world via telephones and computers, money exchanges hand in the number of millions in just mere seconds. The Forex Trading is composed of thousands of banks and individual Forex trading companies that monitors development all over the world, developments that may influence the value of their currency. Forex trading deals with the exchange of currencies from different countries. The idea is to determine the rise and fall of the value of a certain currency and trade when it is deemed advisable.

For small Forex trading transactions, managed accounts are the ideal, they are for the cautious because they have the least risky participation. Here you entrust your investments along with others to a reliable, honest and ethical seasoned Forex brokers. These Forex brokers use their extensive knowledge and lengthy experience and use their strategy to make your money grow, for a fee of course.

With the rise of the internet, Forex trading can be done in a click of the mouse. Money travels through space and wires all the time. The computers have done a big help in the growth of Forex trading, transactions can now be done anytime anywhere. Since somebody is up at a given time everyday anywhere in the world, you will never lose someone to trade with.

There are two basic and fundamental ways to analyze and evaluate foreign exchange trading. There is the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis. There is a huge difference between the two. In Fundamental analysis, Forex analyzers and brokers watch out for causes to market fluctuation. These causes may include the political condition of the country, their laws and legislations, financial policies, their growth rate and other factors as well. Technical analysis of Forex trading includes graphs, charts and other method of measuring past data to see the indication of the rise and fall of currencies. They get all the information they need and use them to calculate and forecast the possible direction of a certain currency.

There are lots to learn about Forex trading; even the seasoned broker learns something new everyday. Forex trading has huge returns in an instant if you catch the right moment and transaction. But always remember there is till the risk, Forex trading can be quite a gamble, especially if your forecast is wrong. Before investing your money in any firm, try to investigate about its record and history in Forex trading.

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Forex Enterprise — A Full Review

A new marketing course to hit the internet by Nick Marks that advertises earnings of $1000 a day and $30,000 a month respectively. This turnkey system generating multiple streams of income is relatively new and so it is my pleasure to review it for you.

After purchasing you are given a login page where you are introduced to the system which is in website format. Everything is easy to access and well organized.

After Nick gives you a little pep talk about positive thinking and goal setting, you will be introduced to his first recommendation: join Coastal Vacations. While not a part of his main Forex system this is a recommendation I could've done without.

In the pay per click section you are given a large list of keywords that Nick found convert really well with his system. Some of the keywords in the list have bid prices already attached to them so you can get front page exposure.

The course also has $50 in free adwords credit that unfortunately only works with new accounts so I was out of luck. If you don't already have an account this is worth the price of the course alone.

The forex course shows you some inexpensive traffic methods and provides links to these sources. He also covers stuff like pop-over ads, e-mail lists and autoresponders. Not bad information by any means, and is an alternative to pay per click advertising if you have a smaller budget.

He has an ebook package that seemed like it was going to be really cool as there were dozens of bonus ebooks and software programs covering everything from creating ebooks and website templates, to getting top positions in the major search engines.

As I took a closer look at this package I realized there were some bargain bin informational products included. However, there were also alot of goodies in there as well that I found rather useful. You get so many ebooks and software in here that it really is worth far more than the price of the course.

There is a section on becoming an Ebay power seller in 90 days that goes into a fair amount of detail and wasn't bad. However, Ebay isn't something I have ever been particularly interested in doing. There is also a section on baccarat strategies that I had no interest in.

One of the last sections of his course introduces you to e-currency exchanging using the DXINONE system. It is a great way to acquaint yourself with this increasingly popular opportunity without having to buy standalone e-currency courses which can cost a couple hundred dollars.

The author has combined several effective ways to earn money online and rolled them all into one course. While I didn't jump up and down about all of his strategies, the free ebooks, software, and adwords credit make Forex Enterprise worth the money.

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Forex Avenue: The Road to Riches

In my continuing quest to provide visitors of my site with a large amount of options to chose from when considering working from home I have done some research on Forex trading. I first learned of Forex trading while pursuing my MBA program. For those of you who have never heard of this, Forex trading is the exchange of foreign currency.

I know I would have never even know this was an option for making money had I not found out in class. Most of the really big corporations have departments of people that do this for a living because it can be very lucrative if done correctly. The best news I have learned about this process of exchanging currencies is that many of the websites that you can sign up with to do this offer free trial accounts to help you learn before you invest your money into trying it. You won't make any money in the trial accounts if you do well, it is just pretend money essentially but with the real market conditions. If you do well in the trial account you will know if this is something you want to try on your own.

Benefits to Forex trading are that is can be done 24/7 whereas the stock market is a business hours only exchange. It is 24/7 because it is done with countries around the world so clearly there are countries that are awake and working while we sleep. Another benefit is you are in control of the trading on your account. You do not need to hire a licensed broker to make your trades and charge you fees. Along those same lines, anyone who does any investing most likely knows that some funds require you to own then for a certain period of time or pay early withdrawal fees. You do not need to concern yourself with this either. One last benefit that I would like to point out is the fact that Forex is not really subject to the same kinds of swings in the market that stocks are subject to. Of course if you always buy and sell the same currencies then there will be market swings. But, because there are hundreds of currencies out there, there is always going to be something for you to make money on because while one currency is up in value another one is down and vice versa.

There are many resources available to someone interested in becoming involved in this type of training. The Federal Reserve Bank's website is just one example of the information available — http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/foreignex.html. Here is another article that you will find helpful in starting out in this field. http://www.forex.com/pdf/pro2.pdf . I have also included one of the sites that does offer a free lesson.

While there are many benefits to this type of training, as I mentioned above, there are certainly risks involved as well. There are risks with exchange rates, central banks in foreign countries, and risks involving interest rates and credit. Forex is quickly becoming a popular way to help diversify your investment portfolio. If you are good with understanding investing concepts and enjoy doing it this may be the home business opportunity for you. Just do your research and try to find one of the sites offering the free trial account to practice with and you are well on your way down the Road to Riches.

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Forex The Future Investment

There are many many advantages over the various other ways of investing. First of all it is a 24 hr market, except for weekends of course. You have the US market then the european and then the Asian. One of the great times to trade is during the over lapping periods. The USA and european overlap between 5am & 9am eastern and the Euro & Asian between 11pm & 1am eastern. Usually the busiest time and best to trade.

The is also the risk factor for the accounts. With futures and options you can get margin calls that can wipe you out. If you get caught in a bad trade not only do you lose the money in the account but you may have to come up with alot more from your pocket. It can be very risking. But not in Forex. Worst case senerio you could lose whats in you account. But you would have to do something really stupid. Like making a big trade on a Fundamental day and leave it alone. If market takes a bad move and you weren't there. OOOPS. But That wouldn't happen with a smarth trader.

Then there are the demo accounts which is an account where you can trade using all the right things, platform,charts,and information. But you are using play money, or what we call paper trading too.

Plus with Forex you have a mini account. Instead of needing thousands of dollars to get into it. You can open an account with as little as $300.00. Now of course you will be trading at 1 tenth of a trade. IN other words you controling 10,000 instead of 100,000.00 These are call lots. Which also means you will only risk 1 tenth too!

So if you would love to learn to do investing and not have near the risk you really need to take a closer look at Forex trading.

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